The delay in the current year's monsoon rains has heightened uncertainty over India's economic growth and pushed up the risks of a drought, according to a leading independent forecaster.\n\n\n\n
India's savings rate which has shown a sharp jump in the last few years is expected to decline to 34 per cent in FY'09, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its monthly review.
Buoyed by the upbeat performance of the manufacturing sector, including metals, Centre for Monitoring Indian
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
With prices of fuel, sugar and metal products likely to remain high, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Tuesday raised the inflation forecast for 2004-05 to 6.5 per cent from the earlier estimate of five per cent.
Customers will not gain as much as it appears to be from reduction in excise duty on small cars as announced in the budget for 2006-07 as manufacturers had already raised the prices ahead of the Budget.
'The government has given up its focus on economic growth because it it not something Modi has been able to fully understand.' 'This explains the extraordinary focus on divisive politics by the BJP even at a time when the world's most important man in visiting India,' notes Aakar Patel.
The real gross domestic product growth is likely to touch 9 per cent in 2003-04 based on better than expected performance of the agriculture sector, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
The government's promise to review the tax structure for automobiles industry notwithstanding, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday
Passenger cars sales in India are expected to clock a 14 per cent growth this financial year on higher demand for compact and mid-sized cars, economic think-tank CMIE has forecasted.
With improved prospects for the farm sector, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Friday raised the economic growth forecast for 2005-06 to 6.8 per cent from the earlier six per cent.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday revised its projection of the GDP during 2003-04 to 8.2 per cent, much higher than the earlier forecast of 7.4 per cent.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
Clocking its highest growth in the last two years, the services sector has recorded a nine per cent increase in sales during the quarter-ended June 2003, a leading economic think-tank said on Monday.
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy expects industrial growth to slow to 4.5 per cent during 2003-04, due to adverse impact of drought on rural spending.\n\n\n\n
The second wave of COVID-19 and the resultant localised lockdowns have impacted over 75 lakh jobs, taking the unemployment rate to a four-month high of 8 per cent, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said on Monday. The situation on the employment front is expected to continue to remain challenging going forward as well, CMIE's managing director and chief executive Mahesh Vyas said.
When it comes to losing a job permanently, the youngest and the oldest segments in the workforce have reported an increase in setbacks in the second wave of the pandemic, a survey of by a Fortune500 company has said. The survey, conducted in April this year, covered 2,000 persons in India. Six per cent of those over 55 years of age reported having permanently lost their job, as against 4 per cent last year. In those aged under 24, the proportion reporting a permanent job loss has increased to 11 per cent from 10 per cent in the year-ago period, the survey done by financial technology company FIS said.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Thursday revised growth forecast for the country's economic growth upwards to 6.2 per cent in 2004-05 as against earlier estimate of six per cent.
As the Ukraine conflict impacts the global GDP, India is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2022, slower than the last year's 8.8 per cent but still the fastest-growing major economy, with higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market curbing private consumption and investment, according to a UN report. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report released on Wednesday that the war in Ukraine has upended the fragile economic recovery from the pandemic, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, increasing food and commodity prices and globally exacerbating inflationary pressures. The global economy is now projected to grow by only 3.1 per cent in 2022, down from the 4.0 per cent growth forecast released in January 2022.
The Reliance Group and the Tata Group have emerged as first and the second largest wealth creators in the private sector for the financial year 2003-04 based on market capitalisation of group entities.
A V Rajwade wonders if the Modi sarkar is pursuing price stability at the cost of potential social instability in both rural and urban India.
The development of private data sources is a hugely positive development. It should serve as a challenge to the government to improve its own record on producing timely and reliable statistics, points out T N Ninan.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy revised upwards its industrial forecast for 2003-04 by 1% to 5.5% as the food sector is expected to show a positive 3% growth as against the earlier projection of a decline of 0.4%.
The production of major agricultural crops is likely to drop by 12 per cent for 2002-03, reflecting an adverse impact of poor monsoon, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.\n\n\n\n
'If private capex has to kick in, there should at least be 2-3 years of visibility.'
India's agricultural output declined during the year 2002-03 to 183 million tonne compared to 212 million tonne produced in previous year, a drop of 13.9 per cent, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
'We operate in 16 countries already, and therefore adding the UK to it, and beginning a chapter in the European continent is the next step.'
Tax collections might fall short of expectations of the Union Budget for 2002-03, in spite of recording a "healthy" growth during the nine-month period ended December 2002, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.\n\n\n\n
India's agricultural production could see its biggest drop in more than two decades this year, due to a drought that hit nearly one-third of the country, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said on Friday.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Tuesday said industrial production growth is likely to decline in the second half of the current fiscal, while the first advanced estimate of kharif crop showed a 10 per cent drop in food production.\n\n\n\n
